Big Year Thoughts

    As some of you may know, I'm doing an Ontario big year in 2022. I started off this year with the hopes of doing one, but covid and family stuff put an end to that. I'm honestly glad for the extra year ~ the first few months of 2021 were dominated by lockdowns and uncertainty about travelling, which would have made a big year quite uncomfortable. It also gives me some more time for planning time, and the added bonus of another birder to travel and bird with. Ezra Campanelli is also doing an all out Ontario big year. The competition of not being the only one doing a big year will hopefully keep me pretty motivated too! 

Only 39 days out now and it's kind of crazy to think that birds found now could remain until January 1st. This is basically just for fun, as what happens happens, but below are the current rarities in our fine province. I'm only counting OBRC rarities for this, and excluding things like Black-legged Kittiwake and Harris's Sparrow as I will have mulitple  chances for them next year. OBRC rarities make or break a big year, you can have a spectacular year and see every single regularly occurring Ontario species, but without rarities you won't break any records. You may be reading this and think "wait Townsend's Solitaire isn't OBRC" (in which case I am impressed with your knowledge of the provinces review list)... but it was only recently taken off the list and is still a code three bird & a tough one to get. There is still over a month to go, so more birds could definitely show up (please Birding Gods), I am personally hoping for Varied Thrush and Gray-crowned Rosy-finch!

Here are the current rares;

- Black-bellied Whistling-Duck

- Razorbill

- Western Grebe

- Northern Gannet

- Slaty-backed Gull

- California Gull

- Rufous Hummingbird

- Sage Thrasher 

- Townsend's Solitaire

- Say's Pheobe

- Golden-crowned Sparrow

Now for what I feel will stick...

- Likely 

Black-bellied Whistling-Duck - This bird has already been around for a few months, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if it lingers into January. Last winter there was one in Michigan that stayed into the new year. Provenance seems a bit up in the air, but that's a tough issue for a lot of vagrant waterfowl species in Ontario. Timing for when it showed up works.... good enough? Probably. 100% wild? No comment.

Razorbill - There have not been that many reports after the intital influx of sightings around Lake Ontario during the end of October... however considering the number of birds involved I think it's pretty conceivable that one or two will remain into the new year. They may be pretty tough to find though, as they will likely be wandering all over Lake Ontario. It sure would be a nice bird to start the big year with.

Slaty-backed Gull - The Ottawa bird has been seen on and off since the beginning of October, so another month? Why not! The number of Slaty reports has increased drastically in the last few years, formally a mega, there now seem to be a few around each winter. I'll go out on a limb and jinx myself now, but even if the Ottawa bird disappears, I doubt I'll miss this bird for the big year. 

Golden-crowned Sparrow - These western sparrows are quite hardy, and the Toronto bird seems quite content with its current home. If birders continue feeding it I think it's fairly likely it will stick around. Would definitely be a nice one to get on Jan 1st.

 

Maybe

Sage Thrasher - This bird has been around since November 6th in Chatham-Kent, and is still being seen daily by birders. There's only one winter record for Ontario, but it's in freaking February so it shows that these birds can be quite hardy! Michigan also has two late December records. If this next month is fairly mild and the bird's food source holds out ~ Who knows! 

Townsend's Solitaire - These western thrushes are often found around now and sometimes they spend up to a few months at a location. I have no doubt the Lambton bird could survive that long, it's just if the berries it's eating don't disappear first. Christmas Bird Count Season often turns up one or two, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if another is found. Time shall tell.

Rufous Hummingbird - It's a bit of a stretch, yeah I know... BUT there is a January record of Rofous in the province, and if you look south of the border Ohio has had tons in the December-January window. It will really depend on how harsh the coming December is, as well as what the homeowners decide to do (if they keep the feeders up, if they decide to add a heater). There are two birds present right now, so maybe slightly better odds?? 

Doubtful

Northern Gannet - In the past only a few Northern Gannets have stayed into the January, they tend to start disappearing (dying) in mid December. There are two birds around right now, one that's been in Hamilton for over a week, and one that was found in Lambton today. It's definitely is a possibility, however I would be rather surprised. If it is still around, I bet it would be moving around Lake Ontario quite a bit & would be hard to track down.

California Gull - This bird was found a few days ago in Essex, and while gulls often stick around for extended periods of time, I just can't see this bird staying. I would be pleasantly surprised if it did though : )

Western Grebe - Yesterday a bird was seen swimming off the Pinery PP and hasn't been seen since. Even if it is refound, I think it's pretty unlikely it will stick around. Hopefully there will be other chances for it during the year. 

I will eat my hat

Say's Pheobe - I will be so shocked if this bird stays I will legit eat my hat. Flycatchers sometimes persist into December (Western Kingbird etc)... but I just can't see this Eastern Ontario bird surviving that long, especially if some winter storms roll around. As much as I would like this bird, I'm saying under 5% chance of it remaining.

Planning is going quite well otherwise, the strategy seems sound and I cannot wait for 2022 : ) The first few days of the year will be dedicated to chasing rarities around Southern Ontario, followed by trip to Ottawa and northern Ontario for other ratities and northern targets such as Great Gray Owl and American Three-toed Woodpecker. I'll likely do some more posts in the next month or so on the big year, and I'll elaborate more on stuff like this. I did the pre-big year blog posts last December, and don't really feel like repeating all the basics again. Ezra did a great post on the big year (what it is, how it will unfold), so check that out if you want more information!

Ezra's Blog here

I'll end this post with a Snowy Owl I found on the weekend, my first one of the fall

Oh yeah, I guess this is my 100th blog post! So that's something