Big Year Review and Thoughts - 2/3 of the way through

I have been meaning to do this post for a few months, but I just haven’t gotten around to it until now. Basically this is just for the folks that want to know all the stuff about the numbers game of a big year… so if you’re just looking for photos of cool birds ~ turn away now : )

So far this year I have seen 340 species, which is around 10 species more than I was hoping to have by this time. There are a few reasons why I’m ahead of my predicted pace… mainly because two things have gone well for me this year.

1) - A warm December allowed for many rarities to survive into the new year, including even a hummingbird! I saw 11 OBRC rarities in January, which is phenomenal for Ontario… average for a big year is maybe 4 or 5.

2) - A fantastic spring for rarities, and also considerable luck because almost all of those birds were chaseable.

Here’s a list of how many birds in each code category I’ve seen. If you need a refresher on what the codes mean check out This post...

Code 1 species seen - 203 (100% of the 203 code 1s)

Code 2 species seen - 71 (97.2% of the 73 code 2s)

Code 3 species seen - 35 (76% of the 46 code 3s)

Code 4 species seen - 24 (58.5% of the 41 code 4s)

Code 5 species seen - 4 (percentages not useful for code 5 & 6s as they are big rarities and there have been so many over the years)

Code 6 species seen - 3

So, now it is late August and I only need 6 more birds to tie the record, and 7 to break it. I have gone through my list of targets multiple times and I feel pretty  confident that I will cross paths with 10 of these code 2 and 3 birds. Below is a list of my targets for the remainder of the year, along with their respective codes. Just for fun, as the season goes on, I will mark off the ones I have seen on the list with a *.

- Brant (code 2)*

There are always a good number in eastern Ontario in the fall, plus a scattering of sightings around western Lake Ontario So it should be an easy enough chase.

- Purple Sandpiper (code 3)*

Purple Sand can be a bit tricky, as some years there just aren't many around in the fall. I plan on spending a good amount of time birding around western Lake Ontario though, so I should cross paths with one.

- Red Phalarope (code 3)*

In the past I have had fantastic luck with Red Phalarope, finding several and seeing a few others too. There are always at least one or two around in Southern Ontario in the fall, so I'm not overly concerned about it. Cocky foolishness? Maybe... or maybe not...

- Long-tailed Jaeger (code 3)*

All jaegers are ultra rare in the spring, and lakewatching in the fall is a requirement if one hopes to cross paths with them. They are usually only seen as flybys on lakewatches, making chasing them quite difficult. One of those birds that you kind of have to chase weather to see (east wind in Hamilton, or Northwest wind in Lambton), so that is what I will do. Long-tails are the earliest of the migrant jaegers, with the first ones normally showing up in August and their migration peaking in September. I will try to nail it down as early as I can, because I don't want to go into October needing it.

- Parasitic Jaeger (code 2)*

The most common of the 3 jaeger species by far, and also the one with the longest migration period... Late August all the way into late October. This should be a pretty easy tick at Van Wagner's Beach in Hamilton with a little bit of effort on east wind days. This and Brant are my only remaining code 2s.

- Pomarine Jaeger (code 3)

The most uncommon of the jaegers, Poms don't tend to show up until close to October and continue passing through until late November. This one may be be a bit tricky and require me to spend multiple days in the Hamilton area in late fall (not that I mind haha)

- Pacific Loon (code 3)*

During the last 4 years several Pacific Loons have been seen on Lake Simcoe in Barrie for several weeks in the fall, so hopefully that continues this season and I'm able to get this one out of the way easily. If those birds for some reason don't return, there are usually a few other Pacifics around during a fall season.

 - Sabine's Gull (code 3)*

This species is an annual migrant in Ontario, found very rarely in the spring, but quite consistently in the fall at a few select locations. The peak of Sabine's migration is early/mid September, and the best place to see them is the lakeshore in Hamilton on an east wind (similar to jaegers). So with enough lakewatching effort, nailing down this species shouldn't be too hard.

-  Cattle Egret (code 3)*

Cattle egrets are rare but somewhat regular wanderers into Ontario. They tend to start showing up in October and November, with the occasional record in September. There have been 5-10 (or more) reports every fall for the past 15 years, so the chances are pretty high that this will happen again this season. Just have to chase one when it shows up!

So if I see all those species I will be sitting at 349 species, three birds above the record. As I listed above, I have seen 35 of the 46 code three species. The 7 code 3s above are the most likely of the lot in my opinion... with the remaining 4 listed below;

- Black Guillemot 

Pretty unlikely without a trip to the coast of James Bay in the fall. They are fairly regular there as rarities, however they definitely aren't guaranteed, especially on a shorter trip.  

- Western Kingbird

This bird has been a bit of a bugger this year... One was seen in Rainy River before my trip up there, and then again after. Occasionally they show up in southern Ontario in the fall, but then there's the question of if it's chaseable or not (many are one day/one observer wonders). During the last 10 falls there has been a Western Kingbird during 5 of them... Although only 1 or 2 of these birds were chaseable. I would say my chances of getting one are around 40%. 

- Cave Swallow

It really depends on the year for Cave Swallows in Ontario... They tend to show up with strong systems of low pressure in the late fall. Some years there are none, some years there are quite a few across the province. Really depends! I would say maybe 40%/50% chance...

- Smith's Longspur

I really doubt I will get this species. Smith's breed on the coast of Hudson Bay in Ontario, but rarely show up in southern Ontario, and if they do it is usually in the spring. There have been a few winter records, but none since 2017. Never know but I doubt it!

Let's be generous and give me two of those birds, bringing me up to 351. Now that isn't accounting for other rarities at all though (code 4s and above), and there always are some during the fall! So a I am guessing that I will hit 350 fairly easily by mid October (9 top birds, plus one of the bottom list)... but honestly I don't think 360 is out of the realm of possibility. It really depends how good of a fall it is for rares... and how many of those are chaseable. A good hurricane could really make things go crazy... I think we are due for one (been 10 years since the last good one). 

Is 8 code 4s and 2 code 5 or 6s too much to ask for?!? Probably but we shall see!

 

Now some other interesting stats. Here's how I've been doing every month compared to Josh in 2012  year and Jeremy in 2017.

(JV = Josh Vandermeulen, JB = Jeremy Bensette, KJ = Kiah Jasper)

January

JV - 127

JB -  90

KJ - 132

February

JV - 136

JB - 130

KJ - 145

March

JV - 166

JB - 160

KJ - 167

April 

JV - 230

JB - 227

KJ - 258

May 

JV - 308

JB - 294

KJ - 323

June 

JV - 315

JB - 306

KJ - 331

July

JV - 321

JB - 316

KJ - 333

Aug

JV - 328

JB - 323

KJ - 340

Not too shabby!

Will include a bird photo just cuz...

- Scarlet Tanager