I haven't been the most active birder on social media since May, partly due to life getting busy but also because of some general internet burnout. In an effort to get back into things a bit, I wanted to write a short post that is fun for me!
It has been an unseasonably warm week in southern Ontario, with predominantly blue skies and daily high temperatures over 20C. This has lead to positive conditions for many lingering migrants, such as warblers/thrushes/swallows. Due to all this warm October weather, some late migrants have been a bit delayed in showing up, since conditions are still favourable for them to remain. There should be a decent shakeup tomorrow though, as a cold front moves through the province. I'll outline a short "forecast" for tomorrow below.
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| - Broad cold front passing through the Great Lakes region overnight. Short lived rain along the southern lakes. |
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| - Current wind conditions. Mainly light SW/W across much of southern Ontario |
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| - 1am wind conditions. Winds shift to light/moderate N/NW as the cold front passes |
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- 9am on Oct 30. Light NW/N wind along Lake Erie and Lake Ontario |
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- 10am on Oct 30. Predicted cloud cover of southern Ontario shows mainly clear blue sky in Essex/Chatham-Kent, moderate cloud cover elsewhere. |
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| - 9am on Oct 30. 45kph NW wind on Lake Huron, sustained 15-20kph, |
Discussion
Today (Oct 29) there is a large low pressure system is moving through northern Ontario, passing through the James Bay region and heading into Quebec by late afternoon. A broad cold front associated with this low will be moving through later this evening, stretching from northern Quebec all the way to the Midwest. By tomorrow morning high pressure begins shifting eastward, resulting in a rise of barometric pressure across southern Ontario. This cold front should provide a bit of a shakeup for bird diversity, with lingering species departing and northern migrants arriving in numbers. The limited rain around the southern Great Lakes shouldn't persist long into the evening, which means great conditions for songbirds to move tonight, taking advantage of the northerly tailwind. There should be a noticeable uptick in species such as American Tree Sparrow, Dark-eyed Junco, Lapland Longspur and other late Oct passerines. Waterfowl such as all 3 scoters, grebes, Long-tailed Duck, Common Loon, Red-throated Loon, Tundra Swan, Common Goldeneye and others will be moving in strong numbers as well. It is also a good time of year to be on the lookout for uncommon/rare migrants such as jaegers, Red Phalarope, Brant and Harlequin Duck along the lakeshore.
The North shore of Lake Erie should be great for visible migration tomorrow, with light North/Northwest winds lasting throughout much of the day. The wind is predicted to be quite light at 15kph or under, which can make for fantastic listening conditions on these cold fall mornings. Essex and Chatham-Kent should experience mainly sunny conditions (good for raptors since sun generates thermals), with patchy cloud cover further East. Expect strong passerine flights with large numbers of blackbirds, American Robin, Eastern Bluebird, American Crow and one of the last pushes of Yellow-rumped Warbler. Lapland Longspurs should see a notable uptick as well compared to the past week. It will be interesting to see what happens with the finch flight, since large numbers of finches (mainly Pine Siskin and Purple Finch) have been observed migrating along the shores of Lake Huron and Lake Michigan this week. Of particular interest is the recent explosion of Red Crossbill reports in the last two weeks (including several crazy highcounts of over 2,000 birds migrating by locations in MN). Maybe this will finally reach Lake Erie? In terms of raptor migration tomorrow should be very productive along the north shore of Erie. Known hotspots such as Holiday Beach and Hawk Cliff should have good counts, though any lakeshore location with a good vantage point could yield results. It is peak season for Golden Eagles, and going out tomorrow should almost guarantee a sighting if you spend enough time. It is also a good time to see American Goshawk in migration.
The North shore of Lake Ontario should also be productive for visible migration of both songbirds and raptors, with increased chances of goshawk and Red Crossbill compared to Lake Erie : )
Turning to Lake Huron, the shoreline from Lambton County up to Bruce County has good potential for lakewatching, with Northwest winds blowing all day. The winds aren't particularly at around 45kph gusts/20kph or less sustained and it's not quite a *perfect* setup, but it should still be a fun day to try a lakewatch! Chances for a strong waterfowl flight, jaegers, rare "pelagic" species such as Black-legged Kittiwake, Red Phalarope etc.
It is also worth noting that there are higher than normal numbers of Townsend's Solitaries showing up around the Great Lakes, so that is a species to keep an eye out for.
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| - Red Crossbill sightings this October |
It will be interesting to see results from Tomorrow!
