The recent weather post I did was fairly popular and I had a number of people say "more like this please", so here it goes!
It is now November, also known as peak season for fall vagrants in southern Ontario! To kick off the month with a bang, there is a promising weather system moving our way.
Things start off with an amplified trough over the western US, which starts moving eastward and gaining strength later today (Nov 1), with cyclogenesis occurring as the low moves over the Plains region. Day-by-Day breakdown follows below;
Nov 2
Center of the low still quite far away (somewhere around SD) and slowing moving NE. Strong south winds at 900m heights pulling warm air all the way from the Gulf Coast area. The intense pull/strong winds are mainly going towards the midwest, with southern Ontario just beginning to see the edge of the south winds moving in. Decent amount of rain/thunderstorms where you'd expect them to be (around the center of the low & warm front).
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| - Nov 2 @ 11:00am, Winds at 900m |
Nov 3
The low makes decent progress throughout the night and is now centered over near MN. The warm front makes arrival in southern Ontario sometime during the morning, and we enter the "peak conveyor belt" of SW winds stretching all the way to TX. A large band of rain is predicted to stretch all the way down from the Great Lakes to the Gulf, which isn't fantastic but hopefully won't be too bad (there is still a decent corridor that is rain free). The low is now more or less stalled near MN and is making much slower progress. Overnight on Nov 2-3 and 3-4 is the peak window of arrival for any nocturnally migrating rarities we may get.
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- Nov 3 @ 11:00am, Winds at 900m
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Nov 4
Another good night of strong southwesterly flow and limited rain in Southern Ontario. This is the final stretch of peak winds, later in the day or overnight into Nov 5 the winds are no longer coming from the deep south, but instead the midwest and at a lower speed. The low may split into two centers/get messy after Nov 4 as it finally moves east out of the Great Lakes.
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| - WPC short range forecast map for 1am, Nov 3 |
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| - Nov 4 @ 5:00pm, messy area of rainstorms |
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| - Nov 4 @ 6:00pm, winds at 900m |
Birding implications
Whenever warm airmasses with strong southwest winds are in the picture during the late fall, the potential is there for vagrants to be blown into Ontario. Some systems are a lot better than others though, so it isn't guaranteed that every low will bring lots of mega rarities to the province. This one is a pretty decent (not perfect) setup, so there is definitely a decent chance that we will see some cool birds as a result! Cave Swallow, Western Cattle-Egret, Glossy Ibis, Purple Gallinule, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher are all strong possibilities, plus any truly mega birds (it's rare flycatcher season) that are hanging out in the southern US right now. The amount of rain involved worries me a bit for Cave Swallows making it up here, but I think there is a chance it could still work out. Maybe a Wednesday Cave Swallow watch along the southern shore of Lake Ontario could be worthwhile? I think Tuesday too early... the birds need time to get here after all.
It often takes a few days for rarities to be found once they show up, so late this week or next weekend could be productive! There are some western wildcards in the mix too like Townsend's Solitaire, which has been showing up around the Great Lakes in higher than average numbers this year. Part of me still hopes for Clark's Nutcracker, which has been seen at two locations in Wisconsin early in the fall.
I also can't see it being too crazy, but Tuesday or Wednesday could have lakewatch potential at Point Pelee.
More weather info on the WPC discussion page here
The next strong vagrant weather may not be until towards the middle of the month, so hopefully the next week will give us a taste of "vagrant month"!
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